Exponential route prefix growth?

From: mccreary@colorado.edu
Date: Sat Sep 23 2000 - 02:57:27 EDT


Perhaps some of you have been following the thread on the NANOG mailing list
concerning the current growth rate of the core BGP routing table. This
reminded me of some questions that came up after Geoff Huston's presentation
at the last IETF regarding the possible origins of this growth. Geoff's
presentation included a heuristic `piecewise fit' of the historical BGP
routing table size data going back to the pre-CIDR period at the beginning
of 1994 (see http://www.telstra.net/ops/bgptable.html, or Tony Bates' similar
plot at http://www.employees.org/~tbates/cidr.hist.plot.html). Geoff
hypothesized that while the pre-CIDR period showed exponential growth in the
number of prefixes stored by core routers, the period after the introduction
of CIDR shows sub-exponential growth. However, both his and Tony's data (as
well as my own at http://xoanon.colorado.edu/routing/BGP_table_size.html)
clearly show that the current growth rate is once again exponential.

If Geoff's hypothesis about the qualitative difference in the growth rate
during the mid-1994 to 1997 period is correct, then something must have
changed in the way core ISPs are using BGP in recent years. This raises the
following questions:

        1. What engineering practices are producing the increased growth
                rate? Possibilities here include advertising aggregateable
                address space as several pieces to balance traffic across
                multiple links, as well as lack of BGP expertise among new
                providers' engineers.

        2. Can BGP be easily extended to accomodate the technical and
                economic requrements that motivate these practices while
                reducing their impact on core router resources? Given a
                thorough understanding of the problems ISPs are trying to
                solve, it seems likely that a better solution can be found
                through careful modification of the routing protocol rather
                than operational hacks that achieve the desired goal as a
                side-effect.

        3. If no scheme can reduce the amount of resources required to
                accomodate these requirements, can a feedback mechanism
                be designed that prevents their frivolous use? This could
                be economic or technical in nature, but a simple policy
                mechanism that could be enforced unilaterally would best
                match the current business model of most ISPs.

--
Sean McCreary                                            mccreary@colorado.edu



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