[c-nsp] OT : IPv6 - Will it hit like an "avalanch"?

[Ted Mittelstaedt]

> -----Original Message-----
> From: cisco-nsp-bounces at puck.nether.net
> [mailto:cisco-nsp-bounces at puck.nether.net]On Behalf Of Mohacsi Janos
> Sent: Tuesday, April 01, 2008 8:11 PM
> To: Carlos Friacas
> Cc: cisco-nsp at puck.nether.net; Church, Charles
> Subject: Re: [c-nsp] OT : IPv6 - Will it hit like an "avalanch"?
>
>
>
>
>
> On Tue, 1 Apr 2008, Carlos Friacas wrote:
>
> >
> > See:
> >
> > 4966 Reasons to Move the Network Address Translator - Protocol
> >      Translator (NAT-PT) to Historic Status. C. Aoun, E. Davies. July
> >      2007.
>
> Yes, but there is a new movement called NAT64 that might fly...
> Regards,
>  	Janos
>

There has been much discussion on the ARIN PPL mailing list regarding
IPv6 migration.  The general consensus is that the IPv4->IPv6 migration
will happen something like this:

The world's RIR's will run out of assignable IPv4 sometime
around 2010-2015

The various schemes to scavenge unused IPv4 will peter out
maybe a couple years after that (ie: buying and selling schemes, etc.)

During this time the major sites on the web (hosters and
whatnot) will transition to dual-stack, at the same time there will
be a large growth of BGP advertisements on the Internet.

During this time there will be a growth of "regular" and "premium" ISP
services, where ISP's will hand out IPv6 as part of the base package and
charge a surcharge for IPv4.  Over time that surcharge will increase, as
fewer and fewer major websites remain IPv4-only.

During this time there will also be a decrease in multihoming among
the smaller providers as the increasing size of the BGP table will
require ever more powerful routers with more ram in them.

Eventually the tipping point will be reached with IPv6 and the
regular users will start abandoning IPv6 and going to IPv4.  The
"power Internet users" will probably not give up IPv4 easily.

During this time we will also see a growth of proxying schemes
among the ISPs

Eventually sometime probably around 2030-2040 IPv4 will be
regarded as obsolete.

The most significant and important point to be made, though, is
that minimum router requirements for full BGP multihoming will
continue to rise, and even after transition is complete, will NOT fall.

A secondary point, though is that NAT is -not- going away.  IPv6
NAT will be with us - likely, though, it will be one-to-one translation,
not many-to-one translation.  The reason is that the Internet
community is unwilling to allow the RIR's to ever engage in
portable micro-allocations - you will likely never be able to
obtain IPv6 directly from a RIR, and even if you did, you likely will
not be able to get it routed - due to the impossibly large growth
of the BGP table that would create.  Yet, nobody other than end-users
are willing to give up the portability that translation affords their
company.  However, the nature of translation
will change because you will only be translating the network
part not the host number, at your gateway only.

Ted